Patterns In The Sand....

Chapter Seven: The effect of weight on a horse

There is a growing school of thought that says that the only two figures that are important to finding winners, are those of time and weight. Many punters will insist that speed ratings are more accurate if they are adjusted for weight. So why are they not adjusted? It would seem logical, as common sense tells us that the performance of a horse will be affected by the amount of weight that it carries.

In reality, the effect of the weight carried by a horse varies considerably from one horse to another. Certain horses can shoulder the burden of extra weight better than others, and one perhaps obvious consideration is the size of the horse. An afternoon spent paddock-side at a race course will show you the significant differences in size and stature of the horses running that day.

The educated punter will also be aware of the influence the state of the going has on the equation. As you might expect, horses find it more difficult to carry weight over soft and heavy going. Lastly, the fitness of the horse is important. When a horse is improving and winning races, the handicapper will penalise him with additional weight next time. But quite often the disadvantage of the extra weight is nullified by the increasing fitness of the horse. Despite the handicapper's attempts to slow a horse down, his speed quite often will continue to rise.

Who is to say that when a horse eventually returns a lower speed figure, it was not down to the extra weight, but because the horse had gone over the top and is ready for a break from racing. It is my opinion there is no simple formula you can apply across the board, without the adjusted speed ratings becoming distorted and misleading. This is why I make no adjustments for weight in my speed ratings.

That is not to say that I do not consider weight carried to be irrelevant, it is just that I do not let it affect the bare figures. Let's imagine by way of an example that two horses with similar ratings are facing each other today. Horse A posted a figure of 74 when winning last time out, whilst Horse B returned a figure of 73 finishing in fifth place in another race. As a result of his winning run Horse A is set to carry an extra 5lbs today, whilst Horse B who could only finish fifth is lowered by 3lbs. Evidently there is an 8lb swing in the weights, and for me this gives Horse B the edge, despite being off a slightly lower mark.

A recent study showed that for every pound more that a horse carried since it's last run, its speed rating would drop by 0.4 of a point. This is not all that surprising. However, it was also shown that for every pound less that a horse carried, it's speed rating still dropped by 0.3 of a point. This would appear to reinforce my notion that a horse will carry increasing weight until it reaches a peak of fitness, and will then start to decline, even when it is carrying less weight than before.

It did strike me that if a horse is penalised on a number of occasions and slows down, then continues to slow when the weight is lessened, there will come a point when the horse is actually standing still - or is that a sign I should perhaps give my brain a rest at this point?

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